An economic analysis focused on income or loss to the fruit producer related to new deciduous fruit cultivar choice

Choosing the most suitable cultivar is crucial for farm efficiency and profitability, as it is affected by climate compatibility, harvest and market needs, labor and management costs. Incorrect choices can lead to significant losses. This study systematically assesses cultivar characteristics, using enterprise and whole-farm budget models, to support informed decisions related to cultivar choice and optimise farm performance and sustainability.

A literature review on horticultural aspects and climatic conditions provided context. A participatory modeling process, engaging industry experts through individual consultations, was conducted to establish assumptions for cultivar choice. The study then utilised a systems approach, involving multidisciplinary discussion groups. This collaborative method ensured a comprehensive and informed decision-making tool for development of a whole farm budget model related to cultivar choice

Utilising a systems approach to develop a whole farm model for cultivar choice, the study developed two simulation models respectively for Japanese plum and apple cultivar choices, adaptable to typical farms in two regions. These models, validated through multidisciplinary focus group discussions, identified suitable cultivar characteristics and ensured consensus on their logical structure, providing a systems approach to cultivar selection

An exploratory whole-farm budget model was developed, incorporating multiple enterprise budgets to simulate various cultivar mixes for apples and Japanese plums. Validated through multidisciplinary focus group discussions, this user-friendly tool can aid in decision-making to identify best suited cultivars for planting. Tree training options and rootstock choice were not included in this model. Significant research has been completed and a MSc study (Cum Laude) was concluded. The final scenario development is advised through a follow up MSc study.

Selecting environmentally adapted cultivars aligned with harvest, labor, and market needs is crucial for profitable apple and plum production. The farm budget model utilising independent evaluation data can optimise these decisions.